April 10, 2025. The Conversation, Ali Bilgic, Professor of International Relations and Middle East Politics, Loughborough University
The announcement of planned talks between the US and Iran in Oman signifies a crucial development – especially given the history of distrust and animosity that has characterised their interactions.
There remains a degree of confusion as to whether the negotiations over Iran’s development of a nuclear capacity will be direct or indirect. The US has said that its Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, will meet Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. Donald Trump has publicly stated that Iran will be in “great danger” if the negotiations fail.
Iran meanwhile has said that talks will be conducted through an intermediary. Araghchi commented that: “It is as much an opportunity as it is a test. The ball is in America’s court.”
This seeming clash in messaging before the talks have even begun is not the greatest omen for their success, even with the threat of US or Israeli military action hovering over Iran. Representatives from Iran, China and Russia are reported to have met in Moscow on April 8.
China’s foreign ministry released a statement reminding the world that it was the US “which unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA [the 2015 nuclear deal or joint comprehensive plan of action] and caused the current situation”. It stressed the need for Washington to “show political sincerity, act in the spirit of mutual respect, engage in dialogue and consultation, and stop the threat of force and maximum pressure”.
This followed messaging from Washington which very much focused on the possibility of force and maximum pressure. Speaking to the press after meeting the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump struck a very aggressive note, saying: “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and if the talks aren’t successful, I actually think it will be a very bad day for Iran if that’s the case…………………………………………………
Rocky road ahead
A major issue affecting the talks is the low level of trust between the two parties. The US’s involvement in the Gaza conflict – including Trump’s controversial proposal to clear Gaza of Palestinians to make way for possible redevelopment – has further strained relations. So has the recent US campaign against the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Further threats of this kind are likely to be seen by Iran as aggressive and coercive – and Trump’s latest rhetoric won’t have helped. This will inevitably undermine the prospects for trust between the parties.
Iran’s scepticism is rooted in past experiences where promises of economic relief were not fulfilled. Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018 is a case in point. This perceived breach of trust has made Iran cautious about entering into new agreements without concrete assurances.
The regional context adds another layer of complexity to the talks. American support for Israel’s actions in Gaza is likely to complicate matters. The populations of most Gulf states are fully supportive of Palestinian self-determination and are scandalised at the way the US president has seemingly given the green light to Israel’s breach of the ceasefire and resumption of hostilities.
Iran’s internal politics are also likely to play an important role in shaping its approach to the negotiations. The country is experiencing significant political polarisation between the “hardliners”, spearheaded by the supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and the “reformists”, who are relatively more conciliatory towards the US and Europe. ………………………..https://theconversation.com/iran-and-us-to-enter-high-stakes-nuclear-negotiations-hampered-by-a-lack-of-trust-254106